Краткое описание:
А это уже совсем что-то аномальное, потому что во время тотальных рыночных распродаж инвесторы обычно бегут в доллар. ... акции фондов, которые ...
Тарифы США обрушили рынки акций и товаров вместе с долларом. Это может ... (https://novayagazeta.eu).
![Трампression. Тарифы США обрушили рынки акций и товаров вместе с долларом. Это может привести к глобальному экономическому кризису — Новая газета Европа window.yaContextCb=window.yaContextCb||[] 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Новости Истории Мнения Видео RU EN Стать другом Станьте нашим другом Сюжеты Экономика Трампression Тарифы США обрушили рынки акций и товаров вместе с долларом. Это может привести к глобальному экономическому кризису Денис Морохин , специально для «Новой газеты Европа» Дональд Трамп на экране телевизора в зале Нью-Йоркской фондовой биржи, 7 апреля 2025 года. Фото: Seth Wenig / AP Photo / Scanpix / LETA Падение мировых рынков на 7–10%, провал котировок нефти до четырехлетних минимумов и потеря доверия к доллару — это то, чего добился Дональд Трамп торговой атакой на весь мир. Опрошенные «Новой-Европа» экономисты считают, что тарифная война может превратиться в глобальный экономический кризис. «Худший день для мирового фондового рынка за пять лет», то есть с начала пандемии и карантинов, — под такими заголовками в понедельник выпускали свои комментарии финансовые аналитики. Европейские индексы на открытии бирж в первый день недели обрушились на 6–10%, японские — почти на 8%, индекс Гонконгской фондовой биржи Hang Seng упал более чем на 13%. Нефть, ключевой товар для российской экономики, — на минимуме с 2021 года, причем для российских поставок цена на сырье приблизилась к 50 долларам за баррель. Бюджет России балансируется минимум при 60. Инвестбанки не ждут восстановления цены на нефть — Goldman Sachs прогнозирует уход на 55 долларов к концу 2026 года при позитивном сценарии и даже на 40 — при негативном. — Сегодня нет объектов инвестирования без риска. Даже золото способно попасть под раздачу, — считает частный инвестиционный консультант Андрей Кочетков. Что с золотом уже и происходит : оно дешевеет, а ведь обычно при кризисе именно его и бегут покупать инвесторы, продавая прочие активы. Другие металлы, торговлю которыми осложняют тарифы Трампа, подешевели на 5–10% за неделю, и рынок ждет, что падение будет продолжаться. С утра вторника, 8 апреля, азиатские рынки чуть-чуть подросли (в основном не сильно больше одного процента, за исключением японского Nikkei 225 — более 5%), американские ночью продолжили падать. О том, что спровоцировавшее обвал решение о тарифах нужно пересмотреть, по данным The Washington Post, уже просит Трампа его соратник и обожатель Илон Маск. — Потенциально смена парадигмы в виде отказа США от роли международного лидера и кардинальное изменение правил мировой торговли может привести мир к глобальному политико экономическому кризису и рыночные последствия могут быть беспрецедентными. Неопределенность зашкаливает, и рыночные колебания масштаба 2008 вполне осуществимы, если не произойдет быстрого рационального выхода из торговой войны, — сказал «Новой-Европа» финансист Сергей Романчук. Трамп против доллара Главная беда происходящего даже не столько в самом по себе падении (хотя в нем, конечно, нет ничего хорошего). Есть проблемы посерьезнее, и их две: на этот кризис ведущие экономики мира не могут ответить скоординированно и с использованием всех институтов, как это было при экономических потрясениях 1998 и 2008 годов, а кроме того, происходящее разрушает доверие к доллару как мировой резервной валюте. — Последние десятилетия США, будучи реальной супердержавой, объективно выполняли в мировой экономике функции стабилизатора, прикладывая усилия к тому, чтобы погасить и урегулировать возникающие кризисы, — рассказал «Новой-Европа» ассоциированный исследователь Центра Дэвиса в Гарвардском университете Андрей Яковлев. Экран с котировками акций на Нью-Йоркской фондовой бирже, 7 апреля 2025 года. Фото: Justin Lane / EPA Ученый напомнил, что ключевую роль при этом играли согласованные действия, с одной стороны, Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС) и Минфина США, а с другой стороны — Международного валютного фонда (МВФ) и финансовых регуляторов в ЕС и Японии. В частности, считает он, во время кризиса 2008 года благодаря таким скоординированным действиям удалось избежать новой великой депрессии и ограничиться рецессией. — Сейчас проблемой в институциональном смысле является то, что, помимо игр Трампа с тарифами, есть проводимое Илоном Маском «повышение эффективности» американского госаппарата. И если реально начнется масштабный мировой кризис, непонятно, кто со стороны США будет на него реагировать, поскольку компетентных сотрудников в Минфине и казначействе либо уже уволили, либо благодаря Маску они озабочены совсем другими проблемами, — сказал Яковлев. Что же касается доллара, то он мало того что за последнюю неделю падал к евро на небывалые доселе в такой короткий промежуток времени 3,5 процента — он падал вместе с обвалом котировок на все биржевые товары во главе с нефтью и золотом. А это уже совсем что-то аномальное, потому что во время тотальных рыночных распродаж инвесторы обычно бегут в доллар. Он всегда считался «тихой гаванью» — а теперь его перестали так воспринимать. «Трампу удалось, казалось бы, невозможное — подорвать репутацию доллара как резервной валюты. Теперь доллар — это риск! — пишет финансист Сергей Романчук. — Главное зло политики Трампа для Америки — это фундаментальная неопределенность. Слово этого](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_s4hmXbqNy6onjzDMETx6jpI4Ni-TL8X3tiHy-adj0IvB-WXAeVYxJseprNU3QeH_npR8rde_J1g94FzdbfzibDS-9a2g23SMkSv-kWtXUYyWKPqaDh7rxRDCkCXIlm3Ynu_lM9D8z5V1CsHHmcQA66ui4i5D279QaY_WK_7GWW53NVNN6HqLlaV-onod7t_KgfUeodcD3BeZSj=s0-d)
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